Exit Clock

How this is measured

Every definition, plainly.

Enough to take the same days and recompute every clock on this site. Where a choice was made, it is stated as a choice.

Loading the parameters…

The basket and the rank

The universe is the Solana meme category, and nothing else. A token is on the clock while it sits inside the top 100 of that category.

Rank is computed on , counted only against the other names in the basket, 1 being the largest.

A provider’s whole-market rank is deliberately not used. A name can be large across all of crypto and small among its peers, or the reverse; the crowd this tool watches is the peer group, so that is what position has to be measured against.

The exit rule

A spell closes after . The spell’s tenure runs from the day it entered to the day the rule closed it.

A day with no snapshot is skipped, not counted as a day outside. A gap does not end a spell and does not extend one; it simply leaves that day out of the run.

A spell that is still running is censored at the latest snapshot rather than closed. It contributes the days it has already stood to the curve and nothing more — so a name still standing never counts as a short stay.

The fitted curve

Closed and censored spells are fitted to a curve over days since entry. The fitted shape and scale give the survival probability at every day, and the remaining-days figure on a clock is read off that curve from where the name currently stands.

The band around the curve comes from resampling the spells and refitting, then taking the spread of the refits at each day. That band is why every figure on this site is published as a range.

Model form
Shape
Scale
Half-life
Last fitted

The whole-basket curve

Still inside the top 100 Bootstrap band

Threshold and marks

Every row on this site carries one of two provenance marks. Sourced means the figure arrives from the market data provider as it stands. In-house means it was computed here, from the snapshots, by the rules on this page.

Limits of the measurement

Attention is read from position in the basket and from traded volume set against market capitalisation. There is no social or news feed behind this tool, and none is planned; a name that is loud everywhere but flat on both of those measures will not move a clock.

The record begins on the first snapshot day. Nothing before it is reconstructed, and a name that was already inside the top 100 on that day is marked as such, because its true entry day is unknown.

Position is taken once a day. Anything that happens and unwinds between two snapshots is not counted.

That this countdown beats a flat median guess is a hypothesis, and the record page exists to test it. That no comparable tool answers the exit question is also a claim rather than a fact — it was checked against a limited set of tools.

Change log

    Credit and contact

    Token identities, market capitalisation and traded volume come from CoinGecko. Basket rank, tenure, the curve and every estimate on this site are computed here from those daily snapshots.

    Write to us about the method — the only way in, and the only one there will be.